Microsoft AI Jobs Shock: 60,000 Buyouts, Who's Next? | Eric Basmajian

The labor market currently exhibits a paradoxical trend of historically low layoffs paired with exceptionally weak hiring, forcing companies to manage headcount through attrition rather than mass terminations. While concerns regarding AI-driven job displacement persist, productivity gains from the technology are currently accruing primarily to corporate profits rather than real wage growth. Recession risk remains low in the near term, as construction and manufacturing sectors—the traditional barometers of economic health—continue to expand, driven largely by data center infrastructure projects. However, the current environment disproportionately impacts younger workers, who face significant barriers entering a stagnant hiring market. Despite positive cyclical momentum, structural issues, including excessive government debt and intervention, continue to suppress long-term real wage growth, leaving many employees feeling financially stagnant despite remaining employed.