Why AI Is NOT the Next Dot-Com Bubble with Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold | Macro Mondays

The AI infrastructure build-out faces intense scrutiny as markets demand immediate profitability despite the long-term nature of capital expenditure. While Anthropic’s recent S1 filing suggests a path toward cash flow neutrality, the broader sector struggles with a persistent compute capacity shortage, evidenced by surging GPU rental prices that defy standard depreciation models. Beyond technology, the political landscape remains volatile, with Lula’s victory in Brazil triggering market instability and potential geopolitical friction. Meanwhile, the European Union is shifting its trade policy toward China, adopting protectionist measures on machinery and industrial goods to counter perceived unfair advantages. These developments highlight a broader tension between aggressive capital investment in emerging technologies and the restrictive financial conditions imposed by current interest rate environments, forcing major tech firms to justify their massive spending through concrete returns on investment.