OXFORD: CHINA WILL NO LONGER OVERTAKE THE U.S. ECONOMY - w/ Jeffrey Snider

China’s economic trajectory has fundamentally shifted since the 2008 financial crisis, rendering previous predictions of it overtaking the United States obsolete. The country remains trapped in a middle-income cycle, struggling to transition from a manufacturing-dependent model to one driven by innovation and service consumption. Despite massive infrastructure investments, China’s growth is hampered by a precarious banking system, shrinking loan flows, and an inability to foster genuine technological breakthroughs. While the U.S. faces its own economic challenges, it maintains a superior environment for capital allocation and risk-taking, which is essential for leading the fourth industrial revolution. Ultimately, China’s reliance on copying existing technology rather than inventing and owning new intellectual property leaves it unable to challenge American economic hegemony, as the country continues to muddle through a long-term, managed decline.