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YouTube22 Oct 2026

What will computer chips look like in 2045?

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Dwarkesh Patel

Semiconductor manufacturing faces unprecedented pressure as AI-driven demand outstrips current production capacity, necessitating a shift from simple scaling to complex architectural innovations. Intel’s leadership highlights the transition toward gate-all-around transistors, backside power, and hybrid bonding as essential strategies to maintain performance gains despite physical limitations. These advancements require balancing aggressive R&D with the rigid requirements of high-volume manufacturing, where even minor yield improvements significantly impact total output. Furthermore, the industry is moving toward a "virtually vertical" model, with hyperscalers and AI labs providing massive capital commitments to secure supply chains. Because the production of leading-edge chips is bottlenecked by specialized equipment like ASML’s EUV machines, scaling output remains a slow, capital-intensive process that demands long-term strategic investment rather than immediate, short-term capacity expansion.

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