Home Prices Set To Slide 30% | Nick Gerli

The U.S. housing market is currently mired in a multi-year demand depression, with sales and mortgage applications falling below 2008 levels despite a stronger economy. While national prices remain relatively flat, significant price corrections are occurring in Sunbelt and Western markets like Austin, Phoenix, and Denver, where inventory levels have surged. Conversely, legacy Tier 1 cities like New York and San Francisco are experiencing a resurgence driven by job density and the AI boom. A looming demographic shift, characterized by a declining birth rate and an aging population, threatens to further increase housing supply while reducing buyer demand over the next decade. Investors should prioritize markets with strong economic fundamentals and professional networks, while exercising caution in retirement-heavy regions where demographic headwinds are most pronounced.