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22 Oct 2026
1h 9m

What will computer chips look like in 2045?

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Dwarkesh Podcast

Semiconductor manufacturing faces a historic surge in demand as AI development drives an exponential need for compute. Scaling production requires moving beyond traditional planar transistors to complex architectures like gate-all-around transistors and backside power, which optimize performance and heat dissipation. Intel’s transition to a foundry model necessitates rigorous maturity metrics and high-quality Process Design Kits to support external customers. However, the industry remains bottlenecked by limited equipment supply, particularly EUV lithography machines, forcing a strategic focus on fab utilization and incremental yield improvements. While capital-intensive, the current economic landscape incentivizes massive investment in advanced packaging technologies like hybrid bonding to increase connection density. Ultimately, sustaining the AI compute boom depends on collective supply chain expansion, as the industry shifts from horizontal specialization toward a virtually integrated model to overcome the physical and economic limits of chip production.

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