"East Asia Is Gone" — Peter Zeihan on the Oil Shock No One Is Ready For

The surge of oil prices toward $100 per barrel signals a potential collapse of the East Asian economic model, particularly for China, which relies heavily on Persian Gulf exports and maintains limited import cover. While Israel and the United States currently occupy positions of relative strength—the latter due to executive authority to halt exports and insulate its domestic market—the global energy landscape faces a "perfect storm" as European nations dismantle the Russian shadow fleet. Beyond energy, the conflict in Ukraine has entered a volatile phase driven by private sector technology; the recent restriction of Starlink capabilities has crippled Russian frontline communications and enabled Ukrainian territorial gains. Despite diplomatic pressure, historical Russian precedent suggests a negotiated settlement remains unlikely until a definitive military victory or defeat is achieved, as the Kremlin views control of specific European geographic barriers as a non-negotiable strategic necessity.