Hedgeye Investing Summit Fall 2026 | Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity

The current macroeconomic environment marks a return to an "old normal" where the Federal Reserve no longer provides explicit forward guidance, forcing markets to discover prices independently and leading to higher risk premiums. Bond yields are rising globally due to a confluence of factors, including sturdy growth, persistent inflation, and significant fiscal deficits. While the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces challenges from the positive correlation between stocks and bonds, investors should consider diversifying into uncorrelated assets like managed futures, gold, and Bitcoin. Regarding the AI sector, massive capital expenditure by hyperscalers creates potential asset-liability mismatches, though current earnings growth remains robust enough to support valuations. Investors must monitor the second derivative of earnings growth, as any deceleration could trigger significant market volatility, similar to the dynamics observed in 2018.