
How will Ukraine get through winter after the Trump-Putin diesel deal?šļøIndependent Thinking Podcast
Chatham House
Ukraine faces a critical winter as Russia intensifies systemic attacks on energy, water, and infrastructure to erode public morale and force a capitulation. While the battlefield remains a stalemate, Russiaās reliance on mass casualties and drone strikesāsupported by Chinese technologyāplaces immense pressure on Ukrainian defenses. Recent shifts in US policy, including fluctuating support for Starlink and the easing of diesel sanctions, have introduced significant uncertainty, prompting European leaders to prioritize strategic autonomy. To survive, Ukraine requires urgent enhancements in air defense and long-range strike capabilities, necessitating deeper industrial and financial integration with European partners. Despite the mounting psychological and economic toll, Ukrainian resilience remains high, though the burden of sustaining the war effort increasingly shifts toward a unified European response as the US domestic political climate remains volatile.
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