Is a deal on the Kuril Islands ever possible?

The Kuril Islands territorial dispute between Russia and Japan remains a persistent geopolitical deadlock, rooted in historical grievances and conflicting national claims. Despite various treaties since the mid-19th century, including the 1855 Treaty of Shimoda and the 1956 Japan-Soviet joint declaration, no lasting resolution has emerged. Strategic interests, such as Russia's military access to the Pacific and Japan's pursuit of historical justice, continue to fuel tensions. Recent developments, including President Vladimir Putin’s highly controversial visit to the islands and the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine, have strained bilateral relations to their lowest point since 1945. Experts suggest that while humanitarian cooperation, such as visa-free visits for former inhabitants, once offered a path forward, current nationalist sentiments and constitutional prohibitions in Russia make a comprehensive territorial deal increasingly unlikely in the foreseeable future.