Ethiopia's New War

Nick Norbrook, Managing Editor at The Africa Report, examines Ethiopia’s critical juncture as its developmental state model—once defined by high growth and infrastructure projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam—encounters severe internal and regional pressures. The transition from the TPLF-led era to Abiy Ahmed’s administration has triggered ethnic fragmentation and violent conflict, complicating the country's path toward modernization. Regional dynamics further exacerbate these tensions, with external actors like Egypt, Eritrea, and the UAE maneuvering through competing interests in the Horn of Africa. While some fear the unraveling of the Ethiopian state, ongoing efforts to consolidate banking and energy sectors suggest potential for future coherence. Navigating these internal rebellions and external geopolitical entanglements remains the primary challenge for the current administration, whose reliance on centralized control faces significant tests from both domestic opposition and regional rivals.