Trump–Putin Diesel Deal: Russia May Not Deliver Promised Fuel | Christof Ruehl

The U.S. suspension of sanctions on Russian diesel exports, following a deal between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to release 1.8 million tons of fuel, serves as a politically motivated attempt to lower global energy prices ahead of the midterm elections. Christof Ruehl, Global Advisor at Crystal Energy and former Chief Economist of BP, argues that these volumes are likely insufficient to impact the market significantly, potentially bridging the global supply gap by only 7%. Furthermore, Russia’s ability to fulfill these promises is questionable given that 30% of its refining capacity has been disabled by Ukrainian attacks. While China has also quietly resumed diesel exports, the Russian deal is characterized by political showmanship rather than strategic substance. Ultimately, any upcoming price decreases will likely result from broader global reconfigurations and Chinese supply rather than this specific bilateral agreement.