The Bond Market Has Singled Out France

France faces a mounting fiscal crisis as its bond yields rise, signaling investor concern over the country's ability to manage its debt. French government borrowing costs now exceed those of major corporations and even historically riskier nations like Greece and Italy. This instability stems from a persistent primary deficit and an economic environment where interest rates outpace growth, a dynamic economists call "R minus G." While Italy has demonstrated the capacity to maintain a primary surplus, France remains trapped by a "ratchet effect" of permanent emergency spending and political gridlock. With the national debt exceeding 120% of GDP and no clear path to fiscal consolidation, the government faces a precarious future. The European Central Bank’s potential intervention remains constrained by political opposition, leaving France in a slow-motion squeeze between public demands for services and the bond market's demand for austerity.