My long time confidant, Jarrett Harris, Director of Research at IronAdvisor Insights joins the show to share his latest insights. He is quintessentially mid-western and was my go to source for learning about the on the ground pulse of the industrial economy when I was at Citadel and Millennium. As part of IronConnect, a heavy equipment industry service provider, Jarrett has unparalleled access to equipment dealers, rental companies, and industry executives.

My key takeaways from our conversation:

The industrial economy’s growth is being driven by Data Center related activity from power gen, to heavy equipment, to trucking and even landscaping and coal.
“A second-tier AWP manufacturer's entire inventory being bought out by a national rental house”
“I don't think we've ever had a time in my [Jarrett’s] 22 years where all three of those industries [for CAT] were firing at the same time.”
“We're having conversations with executives in that component supply chain, I think all of them are looking for an uptick in 2027 volumes. And that was not necessarily the case three or six months ago.
“We're hearing about a coal demand resurgence.”
“There is a risk that there are projects [Data Center] that developers are proposing in multiple states because they don't know which is going to move forward.”

Stocks: CAT, DE, PCAR, CMI, OSK, TEX, SITE, POOL, BTU, SNDK

*Not Investment Advice.

💡 This episode is presented by:Fiscal.AI–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. 15% discount with code PITCH

(0:00) Introduction/highlights

(0:40) Doug introduces Jarrett Harris who is the axe in equipment-industry channel checks.

(1:59) How joining Iron Connect expanded Jarrett’s industry access and dealer network by 10x

(4:08) The Industrial economy is being driven by the data center buildout.

(5:23) Data center demand expands from construction equipment and power generation into new equipment categories.

(6:11) Landscaping, coal, transportation, and flatbed trailers emerge as derivative beneficiaries of the Data Center boom.

(9:38) Coal demand begins strengthening as power providers require higher base loads.

(12:01) Jarrett says he has never seen all three major Caterpillar end markets firing this strongly at the same time.

(12:34) Previously bearish industry contacts become more constructive on the 2027 outlook.

(13:36) The risk that data center project backlogs include projects proposed across multiple locations.

(15:58) Longer lead times, lighter used inventory, and highly utilized rental fleets keep equipment scarce.

(17:34) Jarrett describes an unprecedented buyout of a second-tier aerial equipment manufacturer’s inventory.

(21:03) Haul trucks and articulated trucks approach new-equipment pricing as lead times stretch toward a year.

(23:59) Trucking combines pent-up replacement demand with stronger data center and energy-related freight activity.

(25:53) Component suppliers become increasingly constructive on 2027 truck volumes.

(32:59) Trucking demand looks unusually industrial and project-driven rather than consumer-driven.

(33:47) Signs of improvement in agriculture collide with cautious dealers still recovering from used-equipment losses.

(36:40) A major trailer dealer estimates data centers drive

______________________________________________________________________Research Sponsors:Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative DataAlphaSense–Decision Grade AICarbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy

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Pitch The PM Links:📩Early episode drops episode feedback on Substack Daily industry chatter and market color on LinkedIn

Jarrett Harris Links:Jarrett Harris LinkedIn Iron Connect

Highlights:

EP. 54: Is The AI Boom Causing Machinery Scarcity?

Pitch The PM

EP. 54: Is The AI Boom Causing Machinery Scarcity?