The playbook for seeing around geopolitical corners

Geopolitical uncertainty requires leaders to move beyond outdated models of hyper-globalization and adopt a structured toolkit for foresight. Effective strategy involves selecting the right instrument—horizon scanning, scenario planning, contingency planning, simulations, or tabletop exercises—based on specific objectives like near-term risk assessment or long-term resilience. While AI offers potential for synthesizing data and identifying early warning signs, human-to-human intelligence remains irreplaceable for creative scenario development. Despite 53% of CEOs identifying scenario planning as a priority, fewer than 30% systematically implement these tools. Organizations that successfully navigate volatility treat geopolitical shifts as both a risk to be mitigated and an opportunity to be captured, such as leveraging new trade agreements or surging defense sectors. Success depends on replacing yesterday’s logic with a proactive, integrated approach to monitoring and responding to global contestation.