StoneX Global Macro Director: Bond Market Contagion & Bitcoin Market Outlook | Vincent Deluard

The global economy faces a structural shift driven by fiscal rather than purely monetary phenomena, as public spending consistently outpaces GDP growth. Vincent Deluard of Stonex argues that this trajectory necessitates permanent stimulus, ultimately leading to inflation and financial repression as the only viable solutions to unsustainable debt levels. Tax collection data indicates that economic resilience is waning, with growth slowing as high interest rates and energy costs create a potential breaking point. While traditional GDP metrics prove increasingly irrelevant, the current environment favors "debasement assets" like Bitcoin and gold as hedges against currency devaluation. Furthermore, the French bond market serves as a bellwether for broader Eurozone instability, where excessive debt and political fragility threaten to trigger contagion. Investors should anticipate continued volatility as central banks struggle to manage these systemic pressures without resorting to further quantitative easing or similar liquidity measures.