The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom)

The global tanker market is experiencing unprecedented, historic rate spikes driven by geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, which have forced inefficient, long-haul shipping routes. Because shipping demand is measured by "ton-miles," these reroutings have created a massive, albeit unsustainable, surge in spot rates. While tanker equities have performed exceptionally well, current asset valuations and high rates suggest the market is in its late stages, making them less attractive for long-term investment. Conversely, the dry bulk sector presents a more compelling opportunity, supported by a restrained order book and shifting trade routes, such as China’s move to source iron ore from Guinea rather than Australia. Container shipping, meanwhile, remains a mature cycle with limited upside, as the industry faces significant supply-side pressures from a massive order book.