How Much Longer Can This Cycle Run? w/ Andreas & Mikkel | Macro Mondays

The global economic landscape faces significant shifts as central banks navigate the tension between inflation and growth, with the business cycle’s trajectory remaining a point of contention. While traditional GDP metrics suggest the UK maintains a stronger economy than Russia, the latter’s self-sufficiency in energy and resources provides a distinct advantage in a war economy. Market participants are currently mispricing the risks associated with French political instability, as the potential impact of a National Rally victory is likely overstated given structural constraints. Meanwhile, the AI infrastructure build-out continues to accelerate despite concerns regarding potential regulatory headwinds following the US midterms. Although recent ISM services data indicates softer growth, the dollar’s persistent strength against the euro and other assets highlights a divergence between macro indicators and market positioning, suggesting that current oil market dynamics and geopolitical tensions require a more nuanced assessment.