Canada’s Next Growth Phase

Canada’s economy is positioned for a medium-term structural pivot from export-led growth toward a model driven by capital deepening and technological diffusion. While near-term trade uncertainty and weak productivity currently weigh on the outlook, potential growth is projected to rise from 1.5% to 1.75% as domestic investment intensifies. Current capital pipelines are heavily concentrated in utilities, oil and gas, and transportation, but a broader acceleration requires "crowding in" private investment into machinery-intensive sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and construction. Furthermore, Canada maintains a significant demographic advantage; while developed peers face shrinking workforces, the Canadian working-age population is expected to grow by 6% by 2045. If investment successfully spreads beyond large-scale infrastructure into technology adoption across diverse sectors, Canada could enter the 2030s with a potential output growth rate approaching 2%.