Ray Dalio Says the US Is Going Broke and Named the Exact Playbook

The United States faces a fiscal crisis as national debt surpasses $40 trillion, forcing a reliance on the "Japanese model" of printing money and suppressing interest rates to devalue debt. While Ray Dalio suggests this playbook is inevitable, current market data shows the strategy fracturing as the 10-year Treasury yield hits 5.33% and Japan’s own yields reach 30-year highs. This environment creates a unique opportunity in long-duration bonds via TLT, which currently trades near historic lows around $77. Despite an implied volatility rank of 90, the absolute volatility remains low at 16%, suggesting the market underprices potential movement. Layering into long call options, specifically the 82 or 90 strikes for 2026 and 2028, offers a high-leverage bet on a regime change or interest rate cuts. With a 30% probability of touching $90 within two years, these positions provide significant upside if bond prices mean-revert or the Federal Reserve pivots.