In the first episode of Q4, Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker tackle a market that keeps defying a consistent narrative. The 10-year Treasury is now hovering around 5.3%, its highest level since 2002, even as data that would normally ease pressure on bond yields has done nothing to slow what Manus calls a "runaway train."

The hosts break down the conflicting signals shaping the market, from cooler inflation, softening consumer confidence, a weaker jobs report, and stagflation-like conditions, and what it all means for the Fed's October rate decision, plus why December hike odds are running higher.

Lending remains surprisingly liquid, but available capital and workable deal economics are two very different things. When rents can't justify the price buyers and sellers are trying to agree on, the wheels of the CRE economy start to slow.

In this week's Data Dive, Dianne shares LightBox's preliminary September transaction count, 1,683 deals tracked so far, and previews what the upcoming CRE Activity Index could reveal about market momentum heading into Q4.

Plus, big-ticket multifamily sales across the country, more than $600 million in new construction financing moving forward in Tempe, St. Petersburg, Miami, and Bayonne, and why continued development, even as rates surge, is an encouraging sign that liquidity is holding.

00:00 Economic Signals Send Mixed Messages
02:42 The 10-Year Treasury’s Runaway Train
06:18 CRE Lending Liquidity Meets Rising Rates
10:01 What September Could Signal for CRE Activity
15:02 Data Dive: September Transactions and Big-Ticket Sales
17:33 Did You Know: Treasury Yields Hit a 24-Year High
19:00 Multifamily Deals Show Capital Is Still Moving
21:39 Development Financing Offers a Beacon of Hope

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The Runaway Train—Why the 10-Year Won't Stop Climbing

The CRE Weekly Digest by LightBox

The Runaway Train—Why the 10-Year Won't Stop Climbing