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With the midterms just weeks away, the battle for Congress is getting tighter—and the market implications are growing.

On the latest Protect the Pile, R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman and Brooks Cutright welcome Hedgeye Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor to break down the races, voter trends and policy risks that could shape Washington after Election Day. Taylor walks through the most competitive House and Senate contests, the growing importance of independent voters, and why he watches prediction markets alongside traditional polling.

The conversation also tackles potential October surprises, Iran, energy prices, defense spending and what different election outcomes could mean for governing—and markets—in 2027. With control of Congress potentially coming down to a handful of races, this is a timely roadmap to what matters most over the final stretch.

JT Taylor is Hedgeye’s Chief Political Strategist and Sector Head of Macro Policy, with prior experience as a congressional chief of staff, senior aide to Jack Kemp, President and CEO of Empower America, and an executive at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

00:00 – Midterms, Markets & the Stakes for Congress
02:25 – Why the House Map Is Moving Toward Democrats
07:45 – The Key House Races to Watch
16:30 – Can Democrats Really Flip the Senate?
21:00 – Ohio, Kansas, Texas & the Senate Wild Cards
26:15 – Could Fetterman Become the Senate’s Swing Vote?
31:00 – Trump’s Approval Rating & the 2006 Midterm Parallel
34:10 – October Surprises: Iran, Markets & Energy Prices
38:45 – Why Independent Voters Could Decide the Election
54:20 – What the Midterms Could Mean for Defense Spending

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The Election Risks Markets Can’t Ignore | Protect the Pile Episode 28

Hedgeye Podcasts

The Election Risks Markets Can’t Ignore | Protect the Pile Episode 28