Global Data Pod: Inflation monitor: Goods inflation moving into higher gear

Global inflation momentum is rebounding following a mid-year moderation, fueled by a renewed rise in consumer energy prices and firming core goods inflation. In the United States, core PCE inflation remains elevated despite recent methodology revisions, prompting expectations of continued Federal Reserve rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Eurozone faces similar upward pressure, where energy costs and tight labor markets threaten to spill over into services inflation. Global food prices, previously subdued, are beginning to show signs of an inflection point due to adverse weather conditions. While some indicators suggest core inflation stability, this equilibrium appears increasingly fragile. Rising global demand, higher transportation costs, and persistent supply chain pressures suggest that headline inflation could climb toward a 4.5% annualized pace, with risks to the outlook remaining skewed to the upside as these common global forces reemerge.