Luis Garicano on Spain, Europe, and the Future of Work

Spain’s economic stagnation stems from a political economy that prioritizes pensioners over productive investment, coupled with a rigid housing market that has shifted from high-volume construction to extreme NIMBYism. Despite the country's potential as an energy-rich hub for technology, political constraints and a lack of innovation culture hinder growth. Luis Garicano, a Spanish economist and former member of the European Parliament, argues that the "Messy Jobs" thesis suggests AI will not trigger mass unemployment because most roles require complex, relational human tasks that remain beyond machine capabilities. Instead of chasing unattainable AI sovereignty, Europe should adopt a "second mover" strategy, focusing on fast implementation and maintaining competitive, contestable markets. This approach leverages the welfare gains of AI adoption while avoiding the pitfalls of trying to replicate American or Chinese hardware dominance.