Why the China Threat Is Overblown | Logan Wright

China’s economy is in structural decline, a trajectory driven by specific policy choices rather than inevitable historical forces. The massive post-2008 credit expansion, which reached $27 trillion, created a fragile, inefficient financial system that now severely constrains growth. Contrary to the prevailing narrative of strategic, long-term planning, Beijing’s leadership has struggled with mounting debt, persistent deflation, and a collapsed property sector. The transition from a deposit-funded system to one reliant on shadow banking and wealth management products fueled a "flight to risk" that has since curdled into a systemic crisis of confidence. This shift, compounded by the abandonment of market-oriented reforms, leaves the Chinese Communist Party with limited tools to manage economic outcomes, as the reliance on debt-fueled stimulus has reached its functional limit. Logan Wright, author of *Broken China*, provides this analysis of the country's shifting political economy.