Bob Ryan Says a Diesel Export Ban Makes Refiners Just Stop

The potential implementation of a U.S. diesel export ban threatens to trigger a severe global inflationary spiral. While intended to lower domestic fuel prices, such a policy would force refiners to throttle production, as diesel is co-produced alongside gasoline and jet fuel. With limited storage capacity, this reduction would quickly saturate domestic markets while simultaneously creating critical global supply shortages. These disruptions would ripple through essential sectors, driving up costs for LNG, fertilizer, and agricultural production. Bob Ryan, founder of Ryan Commodity Insights, warns that this supply-side shock risks unanchoring inflation expectations, drawing parallels to the economic instability of the late 1960s and 1970s. Monetary policy remains ineffective against these physical supply constraints, as the resulting scarcity of refined products fundamentally undermines global supply chains and household budgets.