The punchline first: the AI issue is really not playing out the way you would expect if you know about polarization.

In public sentiment: data centers have been a very bipartisan issue for about a year (Gallup, in May: 75% opposed by D, 63% opposed by R). x-risk is thus far bipartisan. These are very salient issues, and salient issues are usually fast to polarize.
Legislatively, both the both-party sponsored AI Kill Switch Act and Bernie Sanders' Stop Superintelligence Act give Trump enormous new powers. The latter act gives Trump a new cabinet post. This would be unheard of before this year and it's fully incompatible with the "Resistance Democrats" bloc's priorities.
Flock camera backlash has also become bipartisan (politico, August), which also is surprising given prior knowledge of polarization. I bring this up, because to me, they "feel" related as new technology being imposed on people, and it suggests broader issues than just AI may be defying polarization.

And now I break down why this is a big deal.

Definitionally, polarization is subtyped as:

Affective polarization: the left and right generally, emotionally, dislike each other. Words like enmity, suspicion, contempt, immoral, or simply hate, are used.
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Outline:
(03:19) The hypothesis AI just hasn't polarized yet is wrong and dangerous
(04:58) Why AI is different
(05:19) Object-level convergence on AI fear, from all sides
(06:21) If Trump loses the middle, a lot of fundamental assumptions about Trump-era politics change
(08:16) Bonus: Angry Birds Congress
(08:45) Aside on efficacy of ultra-partisan tactics
(09:35) Elites are anti-polarizing
(10:00) Polarization might start with cross-partisan industry skepticism
(12:14) Honorable mention: "What about China?"

The original text contained 4 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:
September 25th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WMBgSseHJpghhma4n/we-need-a-better-theory-of-polarization-because-it-s-failing

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“We need a better theory of polarization, because it’s failing to predict the AI debate” by less_raichu

LessWrong (30+ Karma)