Diesel prices have reached historic highs, driven by tight refining capacity and geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz. While some suggest banning diesel exports to lower domestic costs, such measures would likely backfire by reducing refinery utilization and inflating prices for gasoline and jet fuel. Energy expert Josef Schachter identifies the current market as a commodity supercycle, where long-term demand growth from developing nations consistently outstrips supply. Despite short-term volatility and war premiums, structural underinvestment in drilling and infrastructure suggests that oil prices will remain elevated, potentially reaching new records in the 2030s. Investors should prioritize companies with strong cash flows and reserve values, as the energy sector faces a decade-long period of supply constraints that will likely keep prices high even after current geopolitical conflicts subside.
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