Taiwan’s Slow Squeeze, Ukraine’s Long War

Geopolitical competition between the U.S. and China centers on Taiwan and AI, while the protracted war in Ukraine continues to strain global stability. China’s "gray zone" tactics against Taiwan—using maritime and economic pressure to gradually assert control—threaten critical semiconductor supply chains and regional security, necessitating a robust U.S. economic contingency plan. AI development remains a volatile issue, as the U.S. and China lack a unified framework for managing existential risks, hindering effective arms control. Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine has evolved into a war of attrition where Russia’s targeting of economic infrastructure creates severe sustainability challenges for Kyiv. Western support for Ukraine remains vulnerable to internal political divisions, and the broader U.S.-NATO relationship faces ongoing pressure from Russian efforts to drive wedges between allies.