In 2001, Ed Salib walked into TimesSquare Capital Management as the firm's first intern. Twenty-five years later, he's co-PM of the TimesSquare Quality Mid Cap Growth ETF ($TSCM). So what does a 25-year fundamental investor do when one of the market's most debated stocks goes on sale?

Ed passed on DoorDash's 2021 IPO, kept it in his research “bullpen,” and bought the 20% sell-off on conservative early-2025 guidance. He got a second bite when the stock fell from the mid-200s to ~$140 this spring on fears it could be "vibe-coded away."

In the episode, we dig into why scale and density are the moat Grubhub never built, how DashPass and grocery are lifting order values, why Ed forecasts mid-20s growth through decade-end vs. the Street's high teens, and why the end of an internal investment cycle could surprise investors to the upside on margins.

"They gave initial guidance in early 2025 for EBITDA that disappointed and the stock sold off twenty percent. That was our entry point."

“We think they can go low to mid twenties versus the Street more like high teens over the next several years till the end of the decade.”

“I'm looking at the real-time Oxford data. It has August growing 31%...the Street’s at 21% for the quarter.”

We cover:
● TimesSquare's consumer filter: durable, needs-based demand, and why "fashion was a four-letter word"
● The three-sided marketplace, two-thirds US restaurant share, and why Grubhub lost the suburbs
● DashPass, grocery and DoubleDash: how grocery lifts order value and driver economics
● Why Ed passed on the IPO, what changed in 2024, and how he sized the 2025 entry
● The variant view: low-to-mid-20s growth vs. the Street's high teens
● The bear case: cost to grow, Instacart, Uber, PE-backed competition, and Deliveroo/ERP
● How Ed sets base, bull and bear price targets
● How TimesSquare uses Claude, MCPs and AlphaSense in research

Highlights:
(0:48) Ed's 25 years at TimesSquare, from first intern to co-PM
(3:16) What TimesSquare looks for in a consumer stock
(8:08) Why DoorDash is compelling: scale, founder-led, and capital allocation
(11:06) Why the business exists and where Grubhub went wrong
(13:20) DashPass, 45M members, and grocery
(16:09) Carbon Arc data: grocery order values rising from ~$51 to ~$63
(18:11) Robotaxis and drones: bull-case upside
(20:44) Passing on the 2021 IPO and what changed in 2024
(23:50) The 2025 guidance sell-off: "That was our entry point"
(25:36) The 2026 AI sell-off and "vibe-coded away" bear case
(28:55) Low-to-mid-20s growth vs. the Street's high teens
(30:52) Incremental margins, ERP, and EBITDA revisions
(32:23) Deliveroo integration and the 2026 investment year
(35:25) ODP shows August accelerating to +31% YoY
(37:20) DoorDash beyond restaurants
(40:01) Valuation at ~22x NTM EV/EBITDA and the bear case
(45:29) Economics with merchants and drivers
(49:27) Base, bull and bear price targets
(52:05) "We're a Claude shop": AI in research
(54:47) Security and ring-fencing research

💡 This episode is presented by Oxford Data Plan–The Home of Alternative Data. Ping Makay Redd for a trial (professional investors only) — https://www.linkedin.com/in/makay-redd-122a4364/

Research Sponsors:
AlphaSense–Decision Grade AI. Complimentary trial at https://www.alpha-sense.com/pitch/
Carbon Arc–The Infrastructure for the AI Economy. 30 Days free with code PTPM30
Fiscal.AI–Delivering Modern Financial Data Infrastructure. Use code PITCH for 15% discount

Pitch The PM Links:
📩 Subscribe to our Substack for research updates and new high-conviction episodes from top PMs, and our Job Board: https://pitchthepm.substack.com
Doug Garber on LinkedIn for daily market color: https://linkedin.com/in/doug-garber-42aa508

TimesSquare Links:
TimesSquare Capital Management: https://www.tscmllc.com/
TimesSquare Quality Mid Cap Growth ETF ($TSCM): https://tscmetfs.com/funds/tscm/

Stocks mentioned: $DASH

Not Investment Advice.

DoorDash’s ($DASH) Growth Upside–A High-Conviction Investment with TimeSquare’s Consumer PM Ed Salib

Pitch The PM

DoorDash’s ($DASH) Growth Upside–A High-Conviction Investment with TimeSquare’s Consumer PM Ed Salib