Michael Sullivan joins the show to explain why he published the most bullish piece of his bear market at $63K, and why Bitcoin ripped 15% in 48 hours right after. Michael spent thirteen years as a fintech engineer and writes fiction on the side, and he's turned both into a methodology: measuring the emotion in how Bitcoiners actually talk, cohort by cohort, week by week. His argument is that when every trader is bored, fearful, and rotating into AI and quantum, that isn't a bear signal.

TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 Intro 0:21 From boredom to a 15% move in 48 hours 2:34 Why apathy produces the biggest moves 5:27 The trader cohort and the rotation to AI and quantum 7:35 The price heat map: nobody talking about price 9:55 Bessent, liquidity, and why narratives get rewritten 12:26 From fintech engineer and novelist to language analysis 15:50 What he actually measures 19:13 Signal versus noise: bots, aggregators, and cohorting by hand 22:15 Why MSTR holders got more convicted 25:51 Fundamentalists versus capitalists 28:40 The treasury investor is a different investor 31:59 Modeling institutional sentiment 34:56 Why X is the highest-signal source 36:29 BIP 110 and the echo chamber 40:52 mNAV is sentiment 44:52 STRC narrative volatility 49:08 The bear case: what would flip him 50:38 Fading the four-year cycle 54:50 Is the four-year cycle dead? 57:14 Where to follow Michael

🎙️ Featured Guest: Michael Sullivan — author of Bitcoin Sentiment Weekly, fintech engineer, and novelist

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