Jeff Currie (Carlyle) — $83 Crack Spreads & Why Canadian Oil Became Valuable

Commodity markets are currently undergoing a structural shift driven by the end of globalization and the decline of the Bretton Woods system. Jeff Currie, former head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, argues that the current landscape is defined by chronic underinvestment and a rotation from technology back to "old economy" assets. The strategic vulnerability of key transit points like the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the "abundance illusion" maintained by government inventory releases, signals a period of heightened volatility. Investors should focus on marginal conditions and cash-generating assets, particularly in energy, precious metals, and agriculture, as these sectors face supply bottlenecks. The transition from a tech-dominated supercycle to one centered on physical infrastructure and hard assets necessitates a shift toward high free-cash-flow investments to navigate the ongoing repricing of global capital.