How Fast Can You Run a Marathon? Making Sense of Marathon Predictions

🏃 Your half marathon result, watch, and favourite calculator might all suggest different marathon times. Which should you trust?

In this episode of The Rehab Runway, I explore what marathon predictions can tell us, where they fall short, and how runners and coaches can use them to choose a realistic race target.

We cover:

⏱️ Predicting marathon performance from a 5 km, 10 km or half marathon

🧮 Riegel, Jack Daniels’ VDOT and the Valencia prediction model

🫁 VO₂max, lactate threshold and running economy

🔋 Durability: what changes as fatigue builds

⌚ How much confidence to place in smartwatch predictions

📈 Training history, long runs and intensity distribution

☀️ How heat, elevation, fuelling and pacing influence the result

A predicted time is a starting point. The next question is whether your preparation and race-day conditions support it.

🎙️ Hosted by Luke Nelson, Sports & Exercise Chiropractor and running coach.

🔗 To show notes here: https://www.healthhp.com.au/the-rehab-runway/how-fast-can-you-run-a-marathon

📖 Read the accompanying blog: http://healthhp.com.au/blog/how-accurate-is-your-marathon-prediction

How Fast Can You Run a Marathon? Making Sense of Marathon Predictions

The Rehab Runway: From the Treatment Room to the Track

How Fast Can You Run a Marathon? Making Sense of Marathon Predictions