Ted Thatcher Sees Fed Holding Rates, SPX Near 9,000 Without U.S.-Iran War

The Federal Reserve faces a critical decision regarding interest rates as inflation data remains "hotter than expected" despite being within consensus. Ted Thatcher, president of Bright Lake Wealth Management, argues against further rate hikes, suggesting that a 25 basis point increase cannot address the primary driver of current inflation: surging oil prices linked to the kinetic conflict in Iran. While market expectations have shifted from rate cuts to potential increases, the S&P 500 demonstrates significant durability, remaining near all-time highs. High energy costs are paradoxically bolstering the AI trade as investors seek growth that can outpace inflation. Thatcher maintains a year-end S&P target of 8,000, contingent on geopolitical resolution and stabilizing Treasury yields. Meta remains a top investment pick due to its successful transition past regulatory hurdles and the strong performance of its open-source AI initiatives like MuseSpark3.