Sports and investing can both be shaped by small margins, repeated decisions and the balance between skill and chance. From tennis points to soccer matches and basketball shot selection, elite competition offers a useful lens for thinking about decision-making in capital markets.

In this episode of The Bid, host Oscar Pulido speaks with Ronald Van Loon, Portfolio Manager in BlackRock’s Global Fixed Income Group, about the connection between sports and investing. They examine hit rates, payoff ratios, teamwork, preparation and the role of process in fixed income portfolio management.

The discussion explores why a modest edge can matter when applied consistently, how different sports change the influence of chance, and why sports and investing both reward attention to probability, payoff and repeated opportunities. They also consider market volatility, stock market trends and the importance of continuous learning.

Check out the previous episode on tennis here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/061EZSj3afpDQd7lL1FJUF?si=diYmU2axTAS26i7IxccxhA

Key moments in this episode:

00:00 Introduction

01:42 Tennis Margins Compound - How small statistical advantages can compound across repeated decisions

05:17 Winning the Big Points - Why probability and payoff need to be considered together

07:55 Soccer Skill vs Chance - Where skill and chance differ across tennis, soccer and basketball.

09:49 Teamwork in Investing - How teamwork can support decision-making across complex fixed income markets

12:58 Olympics and Process - Why preparation and continuous learning remain central to a repeatable investment process

15:20 Basketball Expected Value - How basketball’s changing shot selection illustrates the concept of expected value

17:35 Three-Part Investor Framework

18:57 Closing and Next Episode

sports and investing, capital markets, fixed income, portfolio management, investment process, market volatility, stock market trends

Sources: Van Loon, R.J.M. 2021. “Long-Term Investing and the Frequency of Investment Decisions”, The Journal of Portfolio Management 47 (8): 86-104; Van Loon, R.J.M. 2021. “Investment Skill and Consistent Long-Term Alpha”, The Journal of Portfolio Management

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270: Sports, Markets and Investing: What Separates Skill From Good Luck

The Bid - An Investing Podcast from BlackRock

270: Sports, Markets and Investing: What Separates Skill From Good Luck