Is Europe winning the ‘fight’? Von der Leyen’s SOTEU, one year on

Ursula von der Leyen’s upcoming State of the European Union address faces scrutiny regarding the Commission's ability to deliver on past promises amid a landscape of geopolitical instability and economic stagnation. While the EU has shown resilience in supporting Ukraine, progress in defense, industrial competitiveness, and tech sovereignty remains uneven. The Commission struggles to balance aggressive tech regulation with the need for innovation, as evidenced by the limited impact of the Digital Markets Act and the ongoing challenges of AI oversight. Furthermore, the bloc’s inability to maintain a unified front on trade deals and foreign policy, coupled with the rise of Eurosceptic sentiment, complicates the narrative of a "swashbuckling" and independent Europe. Future policy success hinges on addressing migration, climate change, and the economic pressures driving the far-right, rather than relying on empty rhetoric.