Tina Fordham on Iran, AI and the Geopolitics Supercycle

The global geopolitical landscape is undergoing a structural shift characterized by a "geopolitical supercycle," defined by an accelerating frequency of shocks—including climate events, cyber attacks, and trade sanctions—following the erosion of post-World War II stability. Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Insight and author of *Mad World: A Geostrategy Survival Guide for Leaders*, explains that the primary driver of this volatility is the withdrawal of the United States as a reliable guarantor of global trade and security. This transition forces mid-sized powers to seek new cooperative configurations while corporate leaders struggle to balance AI-driven growth with the downside risks of a fragmented, less predictable international order. Markets often fail to capture these non-linear trajectories, as investors frequently compartmentalize geopolitical crises, ignoring the long-term structural implications of shifting power dynamics and the declining trust in traditional alliances.