[adapted from this comment]

It's much simpler, more straightforward, and more robust to pause as soon as possible than to 'agree to pause in the future, and then do it at just the right moment'. Several reasons:

Pausing doesn't happen in an instant. It will, in practice, likely take at least weeks if not months for an enforceable pause to be implemented once everyone agrees it is time. In that period, capabilities development will continue until the absolute last moment.
The shorter the runway from the present AI status quo to truly dangerous capabilities, the more fragile the pause will be. And the longer we wait, the more complex the necessary measures will be to enforce the pause and prevent rogue actors from covertly advancing the frontier, because we'll have less time to safely detect them and stop them.
Fewer points of failure. To agree to pause at some point in the future, you both have to get people to agree to that future goal, then when the time comes you have to get them to agree again. Each distinct time that everyone has to agree on something, there's an opportunity for failure/deception/defection.
Relatedly, if a bunch of bigwigs [...]

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First published:
September 8th, 2026

Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nX2Wudqbz2r8tJKwT/pausing-ai-asap-is-preferable-to-agreeing-to-pause-at-some

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Pausing AI ASAP is preferable to agreeing to pause at some future time” by Connor Williams

LessWrong (30+ Karma)

“Pausing AI ASAP is preferable to agreeing to pause at some future time” by Connor Williams