
The stock market’s current valuation and earnings trajectory defy common bubble narratives, as evidenced by the "great re-rating" where only 27 S&P 500 stocks maintain a forward P/E exceeding 40. Corporate earnings are breaking out of a 90-year channel, demonstrating robust growth even when excluding non-operating investments. The long-standing adage to "invest in what you know" faces scrutiny, given the significant drawdowns in consumer staples like Nike and Lululemon, which underscore the difficulty of individual stock selection. Meanwhile, Apple’s negative correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and the market’s successful absorption of massive SpaceX share unlocks reflect a period of low realized correlation and high resilience. These dynamics suggest that while market participants remain cautious, the underlying fundamentals continue to support a broadening landscape rather than a singular, unsustainable mania.
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