Oil Near $100: China’s Demand Story Doesn’t Add Up | Art Berman

China’s dramatic reduction in oil imports, totaling four million barrels per day, signals a significant domestic economic contraction rather than a purely strategic inventory maneuver. While mainstream narratives attribute this shift to the clever utilization of a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), refinery data reveals a more concerning reality: Chinese refineries have cut production by three million barrels per day compared to pre-war levels. Because consumers purchase refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel rather than crude oil, this drop in refinery runs indicates a massive decline in actual energy consumption. Geologic consultant Art Berman argues that even accounting for halted exports and potential refined product inventories, Chinese demand is likely down by at least two million barrels per day. This trend, consistent with broader Asian market data, suggests that the Chinese economy is either facing forced rationing or severe underlying weakness that contradicts the "Chinese miracle" narrative.