Ukraine War Expert: The War Just Entered a New Phase - And It's About to Get Really Dangerous

The war in Ukraine has entered a volatile new phase, transitioning from static, drone-dominated positional warfare toward a competitive environment where both sides are restoring tactical mechanized maneuver. George Barros, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, highlights that while Ukraine is successfully employing armored vehicles to break through Russian lines, the conflict remains a grueling war of attrition. Russia’s slow, costly push into the "Fortress Belt"—a series of defensible urban centers in eastern Ukraine—demonstrates the high price of territorial gains. Although long-range strikes against rear infrastructure and logistics are intensifying, they remain secondary to the decisive ground campaign. Ultimately, the ability to achieve operational maneuver and sustain force generation will determine the trajectory of the conflict, as concerns mount regarding potential Russian escalation against NATO members to disrupt Western support.