Global Data Pod: Türkiye and Kazakhstan - Disinflation at crossroads

Inflationary trends in Turkey and Kazakhstan remain elevated above targets, driven by distinct structural and supply-side pressures. In Turkey, the disinflation process, initiated by rate hikes and fiscal consolidation, has stalled due to Middle East conflict-related energy and food price shocks and deeply unanchored inflation expectations. Conversely, Kazakhstan’s economy remains resilient with strong domestic demand and persistent services inflation, despite successful prudential measures curbing credit growth. While both nations maintain restrictive monetary stances, future policy easing is constrained by the risk of fiscal stimulus and the need to anchor expectations. Forecasts suggest a gradual decline in inflation, yet significant rate cuts remain unlikely in the near term as both central banks navigate the tension between growth objectives and the necessity of maintaining tight conditions to stabilize price levels.