The Annual AFC Over/Unders With Bill Simmons, Cousin Sal, and Joe House

AFC win total over-under analysis centers on evaluating team trajectories, coaching changes, and roster adjustments ahead of the upcoming NFL season. Key arguments highlight the Buffalo Bills' consistency despite a challenging schedule, the potential for the New England Patriots to exceed expectations with Drake Maye, and the Houston Texans' status as a formidable contender due to a dominant defense and improved offensive depth. The discussion emphasizes the impact of coaching transitions, such as Jesse Minter’s arrival in Baltimore, and the risks associated with aging quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson. Betting strategies incorporate advanced metrics like net rest and turnover regression, while acknowledging the inherent volatility of team performance. The analysis concludes with a consensus on the Texans' high ceiling and skepticism regarding the long-term viability of the Raiders and Colts under current roster constraints.