Going Ballistic - The Ballistic Missile Resurgence From Ukraine to Iran & the Pacific

Conventional ballistic missiles have experienced a significant resurgence in the 2020s, transitioning from Cold War-era nuclear delivery systems to versatile, precision-guided conventional weapons. This shift is driven by the need for responsive, high-speed strike capabilities that can penetrate modern air defenses, as evidenced by the widespread use of Russia’s Iskander in Ukraine and Iran’s strikes against regional targets. Nations like China and South Korea are further expanding this domain with anti-ship ballistic missiles and heavy bunker-busters like the Hyunmoo-5. Because ballistic missile defense remains prohibitively expensive and technically challenging, militaries are increasingly viewing sovereign offensive strike capabilities as a necessary component of deterrence. This democratization of long-range precision strike power forces adversaries to account for the risk of rapid, non-nuclear escalation, fundamentally altering the calculus of modern conflict and regional power dynamics.