Gavin McCracken (Pt. 2): Robotics, AI, and A Commodities Supercycle

Artificial intelligence currently functions as a sophisticated pattern recognition tool rather than a source of true intelligence, yet its ability to rapidly identify mathematical counterexamples is accelerating scientific innovation. This technological shift marks the conclusion of the information era, signaling a transition toward a commodity supercycle fueled by the rising demand for robotics and essential raw materials like silver and aluminum. Geopolitical instability, particularly the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz, creates significant market risks that remain largely unpriced. Potential export bans on WTI crude oil and the bifurcation of global markets between the U.S. and China threaten to trigger a liquidity crunch. Consequently, investors must navigate these risks by balancing exposure to raw material producers with strategic hedges against extreme volatility in energy markets, as the current global economic landscape remains increasingly disconnected from underlying geopolitical realities.