The Macro Minute: Is our stock market bubble thesis intact?

The stock market bubble thesis remains intact, supported by a historically bullish disparity between labor and capital income and a productivity boom driving a jobless recovery. This "run it hot" environment, labeled Paradigm C, is further bolstered by a bond market that pulls forward Federal Reserve yield curve control, signaling an imminent transition to Paradigm D—default via debasement. While these conditions favor risk assets in the near term, the rapid accumulation of gold by central bankers suggests a faster-than-expected progression toward Paradigm E, characterized by major political realignment and total war. The current U.S.-China AI race is largely a marketing construct designed to exploit market fear. This data-driven perspective emphasizes that the widening affordability crisis and the selfish pursuit of corporate profits are leading toward systemic instability, despite the current profitability of the "everything bubble."