In early June this year Nigel Farage held a press conference in the South Wales steel town of Port Talbot. He announced Reform UK’s commitment to the re-industrialisation of Wales, including the re-opening of Port Talbot’s blast furnaces and a return to coal mining in the South Wales Valleys.

His controversial announcement was the opening shot in Reform UK’s campaign for the Welsh Senedd elections in May next year. Those elections could be a watershed moment for British politics. In a startling and far-reaching “perfect storm” of circumstances, Reform UK may become the largest party in Wales and could even, conceivably, end up forming the government.

Whatever the outcome, a substantial Reform presence in the Senedd would be a major step forward for a party which didn’t even exist just a few years ago. It could also be a significant indication of what could happen across the UK as we look ahead to the next general election in 2029.

Political journalist Will Hayward has been watching and reporting on Reform’s rise in Wales. Now he explores how Wales could become the setting for their biggest breakthrough yet.

Current polls show Reform neck-and-neck with the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru and the Labour party currently in a distant third place. This is potentially a seismic shift in Welsh politics. Labour have dominated Wales not just in the last 26 years since devolution began, but for over a century. From the general election of 1922 onwards, Wales has always returned a majority of Labour MPs, making it the most successful democratic party in history. Yet this run of success could be about to come to a crashing halt.

To understand how next year’s elections might play out, Will speaks to politicians from across the spectrum in Wales, including current and former Welsh party leaders, and to Reform’s man in Wales, Llŷr Powell. Will explores Reform's ambitions and policies for Wales; he considers whether this is really a right-turn politically for a nation that’s famously left-leaning; and he asks what a Reform victory in the Senedd elections could mean for the rest of the UK.

Presenter: Will Hayward Producer: Jeremy Grange Executive Producer: Michael Surcombe An Overcoat Media production for BBC Radio 4

Photo credit: Rob Norman

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