Dylan Patel – Anthropic & OpenAI will have most of the world’s compute by 2028

The global economy is increasingly defined by the economics of AI compute, where a small number of frontier labs capture a growing share of the world's processing power. These labs have transitioned from venture-funded losses to generating significant revenue per megawatt, enabling them to reinvest heavily in training and research. This centralization is accelerating, with projections suggesting that OpenAI and Anthropic will control the majority of incremental compute by 2028. While this growth is fueled by massive capital expenditure, it faces constraints from supply chain bottlenecks, rising interest rates, and regulatory interventions. As these labs internalize more compute for recursive self-improvement, they effectively concentrate the world's most advanced labor and intelligence, creating a high-stakes environment where the concentration of resources poses profound risks to global economic stability and market competition.