Moving Beyond the Patriot Missile || Peter Zeihan

The United States faces a critical inflection point in defense manufacturing as deglobalization and shifting warfare tactics render traditional high-end weaponry increasingly obsolete. The Trump administration’s reluctance to license Patriot missile production to Ukraine—officially cited as intellectual property protection—likely stems from fears that Ukraine’s superior aerospace expertise would produce cheaper, more efficient iterations that undercut American contractors. Current U.S. systems rely on fragile global supply chains for specialized components like gallium chips, which are vulnerable to geopolitical instability. Furthermore, the American military's historical focus on expensive, durable power projection is ill-suited for a new era defined by "spamming" defenses with thousands of low-cost drones. To remain relevant, anti-ballistic technology must pivot from four-million-dollar interceptors to systems costing under $250,000, or risk being bypassed by allies and adversaries who are already embracing high-volume, decentralized technological revolutions.