Tobias Adrian, Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF

Global financial stability hinges on the interplay between unpredictable shocks and systemic vulnerabilities like leverage, maturity transformation, and interconnectedness. Tobias Adrian, Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department at the IMF, emphasizes that while artificial intelligence currently drives growth through strong corporate profitability, the long-term sustainability of massive capital expenditures remains uncertain. Sovereign debt levels now approach 100% of global GDP, creating medium-term risks as higher real interest rates and elevated term premiums pressure fiscal stability. Furthermore, the expansion of non-bank financial intermediaries and the surge in derivative volumes relative to cash markets introduce significant pro-cyclicality. These developments necessitate a focus on structural vulnerabilities rather than mere forecasting, as liquidity-driven markets may mask underlying imbalances that could rapidly unwind during adverse economic scenarios.